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2017, the second half of foreign trade direction?

Date:2017-09-28 Views:406

Economic Observer online reporter Zhang Wenyang from the General Administration of customs data show that in the first half of 2017, China's foreign trade show stability in the good situation. According to the latest customs data released in August 8th showed that the first 7 months of this year, China's foreign trade import and export value of 15 trillion and 460 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year (below) increased 18.5%, an increase over 1-6 months have come down, but still high.


The above data means that in the first half of 2017, China's foreign trade situation steadily to the good. Since then, this situation will continue further? Maybe we can get a glimpse of the opportunities from the "China export export guidance index". According to the General Administration of customs, the export leading index of China was 41.9, up 0.4 from the previous month, which seemed to mean a good prospect. The index of export trade is leading Chinese macro indicators of the General Administration of customs processing trade imports, major economies, foreign direct investment, such as investment and consumption, as well as business orders, confidence, cost and other micro index statistical synthesis of a monthly index, can be used to predict our future two or three months export trend.


In addition to the "China's export leading index rose ring" this feature, according to the General Administration of Customs analysis, the first 7 months, China's foreign trade import and export also presents the following characteristics:


1., general trade import and export growth, the proportion of ascension. The first 7 months, China's general trade import and export 8 trillion and 770 billion yuan, an increase of 19.1%, accounting for 56.7% of China's total import and export, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Over the same period, imports and exports of processing trade 4 trillion and 390 billion yuan, an increase of 15.2%, accounting for 28.4%, down 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year.


2., imports and exports to Europe, America, Japan, ASEAN and other markets grew. In the first 7 months, the total trade value with the EU reached 2 trillion and 330 billion yuan, up 17.1%, accounting for 15.1% of China's total import and export value. The total value of Sino US trade was 2 trillion and 180 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, accounting for 14.1% of China's total import and export. Bilateral trade with ASEAN totaled 1 trillion and 900 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9%, accounting for 12.3% of China's total import and export. China Japan trade value of 1 trillion and 150 billion yuan, an increase of 16.9%, accounting for 7.4% of China's total import and export value.


3., the proportion of private enterprises import and export. 7 months ago, China's private enterprises import and export 5 trillion and 950 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9%, accounting for China's total import and export of 38.5%, 0.4 percentage point increase over the same period last year; foreign-invested enterprises import and export 6 trillion and 830 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6%, accounting for 44.2% of China's total import and export; state-owned enterprises import and export 2 trillion and 620 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8%, China accounted for 17% of the total import and export


4., mechanical and electrical products, traditional labor-intensive products are still the main export. 7 months ago, China's export of electromechanical products 4 trillion and 870 billion yuan, an increase of 14.2%, accounting for 57.1% of total exports; including electrical and electronic products, machinery and equipment, clothing, textiles, footwear, furniture, plastic products, bags, toys and other 7 categories of labor-intensive products in total exports 1 trillion and 770 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%, accounting for the total value of exports 20.7%; 530 thousand cars, an increase of 45.8%. It is noteworthy that steel exports amounted to 47 million 950 thousand tons, a decrease of 28.7%.


5., iron ore, crude oil and natural gas and other commodities import price rise. 7 months ago, including iron ore, crude oil, refined oil, natural gas, primary plastics, unwrought copper and copper products have different degrees of price increases. Using natural gas as an example, the first 7 months of imports of 36 million 820 thousand tons, increased by 20.7%, the average import price of 2237.4 yuan per ton, up 12.6%; in addition, the import of electromechanical products 3 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7%; of which 690 thousand cars, an increase of 22%.


In addition, in July the growth rate of imports and exports has dropped slightly: China's total import and export value of 2 trillion and 320 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7%. Among them, exports 1 trillion and 320 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2%; imports of 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7%. General Administration of Customs explained that, by the same period last year, base lift higher factors, import and export growth in July fell back in June.